By Kerin Hope and Tony Barber in Athens, Financial Times
Greece’s centre-right New Democracy party appears to be in the lead for this weekend’s general election, say opinion polls, yet moves are afoot to prevent its leader from becoming prime minister, say people with knowledge of such plans.
Antonis Samaras, the New Democracy’s leader, is seen as a divisive politician not suited to leading a coalition government that must stick together and make hard choices to stop Greece crashing out of the euro, the same people said.
In conversations with the Financial Times on the eve of the election, leading business people dominant in their sectors and with interests in the broader region voiced fears that, despite his commitment to euro membership, Mr Samaras lacks the qualities needed to restore Greece’s credibility with international
lenders, re-invigorate reforms and steer the country in the direction of recovery.
One described Mr Samaras as a “street-fighter politician” focused on combating the left, with little understanding of the extent of restructuring the Greek economy needs to regain competitiveness.
Another ticked off a list of his alleged misjudgments over the years, from bringing down a pro-reform government in the 1990s to exasperating European and IMF officials trying to secure broad-based political support for the first bailout programme in 2010.
These business people – along with political aides in the two moderate leftwing parties that would be likely coalition partners in a cross-party government – started briefing against Mr Samaras two weeks ago after private polls showed New Democracy consistently ahead.
If New Democracy wins the election, Mr Samaras can expect the first assault to come from his own party colleagues.
“The party elders – former senior cabinet ministers and owners of old-established Greek family businesses – will do their best to make Mr Samaras step aside to make way for a consensus prime minister and a government in which technocrats run the economy,” said one person with knowledge of the party establishment’s thinking.
One candidate for prime minister would be Panagiotis Pikrammenos, the senior judge serving as interim premier during the election campaign. The name of George Provopoulos, the central bank governor, has also been mentioned.
Some business leaders are keen to see the return of Lucas Papademos, the former European Central Bank vice-president, who steered Greece through a partial debt restructuring in February during six months at the head of a coalition government.
Business leaders hold Mr Samaras partly responsible for Greece’s political and economic implosion because of his outright opposition to the country’s first bailout package in 2010.
“His anti-European stance made many in the business community reluctant to back him for high office, even though they’ll always vote conservative,” said one analyst, who declined to be named.
Doubts also persist about the New Democracy leader’s commitment to implementing reforms agreed in return for a second €174bn bailout, although he signed up to the deal last March after pressure by EU officials and the International Monetary Fund.
“The business establishment doesn’t trust him because he doesn’t understand what middle-class democracy should be like in Greece,” said Thanos Veremis, a retired professor of history at Athens University who knows Mr Samaras personally and has followed his 30-year career in politics.
“Samaras does not inspire thoughtful people as a leader, he is a nationalist and very rightwing,” Prof Veremis said, suggesting Mr Samaras puts narrow political interest above consensus-building on the economy.
Two unpublished opinion polls seen by the FT on Friday gave New Democracy 28-31 per cent of the vote to 23.5-27 per cent for the radical left Syriza coalition. Such a result implies the conservatives would fall short of an outright majority in the 300-member parliament, even with a bonus of 50 extra seats awarded to the frontrunner under the Greek electoral system.
The PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) and the moderate leftwing Democratic Alliance would capture 9-12 per cent and 6.5-8 cent respectively, according to the same polls. They are considered the mostly likely partners in a conservative-led coalition.
Mr Samaras has pledged on the campaign trail to attempt a partial renegotiation of the second bailout, ignoring repeated warnings from European leaders that such a move could hasten a “Grexit” from the euro. He has rebuffed suggestions that he should make way for a technocrat premier, telling a press conference earlier this week: “It is normal for the leader of the party that comes first in an election to form a government.”
A Samaras campaign official said that if New Democracy won more than 30 per cent of the vote, it would be harder for opponents to deny him a chance at the premiership.
Yet Evangelos Venizelos, the Pasok leader, is prepared to block Mr Samaras and insist on a technocrat premier as the price of his support for a coalition, according to a senior party official.
“He is very reluctant to see Samaras in the top job, even if he’s not serving in the government himself,” the official said.
Fotis Kouvelis, the Democratic Left leader, held a similar opinion, according to a person familiar with his thinking. “If the conservatives win we will need a consensus prime minister – and quickly or the Europeans will become very agitated,” the same person said.
