By Tariq Khalil, Pakistan Observer
Presence of Pak army contigent in joint exercise has raised concerns and anxiety. There is confusion what actually Pakistan stand is.
Earlier Pakistan had made it clear that Pakistan is not sending any troops physically, a sigh of relief for people who understand strategic complexities of the region and the Middle East .Pakistan has suffered economically , socially and degeneration in the body fabric fighting others wars.Pakistan must not involve in a strategic ball game mess already threatening the world peace. Pakistan internal and regional problems are already complex both on Eastern and Western borders and internally. Our domestic environment is more murky than visible. Nexus of corruption and crime is eroding the very foundation of the state. Our political elite is past master in shifting the blame to establishment as they do not speak. Whereas, of late establishment has come hard on any type of corruption within its ranks.
In this scenario, while we are struggling within, the fast changing situation on the Syrian front in particular and Middle East in general is cause of great anxiety even for the big powers. No one want the war to escalate yet the major players, Syria , Russia on one side , Turkey and Saudi stands and USA on the other are sticking to their positions creating an environment which is dangerously explosive and , not wanting may escalate into a major war. A war which will not only engulf Saudis, Turkey, whole of Middle East and lead to US and Russian involvement. Russia stake in Syria are very high strategically, loss of Syria will be blow to Russians in Middle East and hence they will never allow it. Russian bombing of IS starting September last changed the whole ball game in Middle East and on Syrian front, after two decades flexing Russian muscle in any international conflict.
And also to the surprise of armament watchers an entire array of new weaponry and use high tech jamming capabilities has stunned the west. The Russia’s physical involvement raised the ante and virtually narrowed the strategic options for USA and its allies. Russia claims it is fighting IS but USA and its allies are skeptical. In this back ground USA and Russia have been engaged in negotiations from the last month, and last week hopes were raised for a cease fire in Russia. The news of cease fire agreement effective Feb 27 has been received with optimism and skepticism as IS who triggered blasts in Homs and killing 120 innocents may not be bound to the agreement, leaving speculation the response they will get, especially the lines are murky.
Followed by the announcement by Assad to hold parliamentary election in April, there is apprehensions, ISIS not bound, Kurds finding a great opportunity to get Kurdistan, and Saudi itch to Assad, the fate of cease fire is murky. Russia nevertheless vowed to ensure cease fire hold is very encouraging. However events in next couple of days will unfold the new realities. Pakistan involvement in any form is fraught with extreme dangers for Pakistan, while the war against terrorism is still going on and hands of Pakistan forces are full. Especially the delicate balance Pakistan has to maintain in view of regional complexions between, Iran, Saudis,Turkey and even Russia. Saudi are claiming the friends but they have their own interest.
Under the present circumstances these directly are in conflict with Pakistanis long term strategic interests. Turkey another longtime friend is drifting towards a scenario which may push her into a war which it may not be wanting and what cost, whatever economic progress it has made in last two decades will be at peril of destruction. This Turkish stance is not strange as they are a proud nation in last thousand years and will not succumb to conspiracies being built around it. On our north with Russia, we must not allow the improved relations after many years of toil be soiled for short term gains. In South East China Pakistan CPEC venture is in conflict with India’s regional ambitions and their Public stance they will try to scuttle it, is unfortunately not taken seriously by our present ruling parry who are bending backward to appease India.
While clouds of war gathering in the surroundings of Pakistan, the country torn by terrorism from the after effects of Afghan wars and still fighting against it, the growing hostilities of India need a very articulate structuring of its policy. Especially when corruption and crime Nexus’s has destroyed the confidence of the population, there is a need to keep itself away from any conflict in Middle East, rather try to defuse it since both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are friends. There is amicable relationship with Russia and friendly with USA. Also heating up of Eastern border is to be taken up seriously when Indian ministers hurl threats to teach a lesson at time and place they decide. India media blasting day and night trying to make world believe the greatest terrorist is Pakistan notwithstanding the gesture PM has been making.
The growing internal dissention in India are likely to sprout home grown terrorism, the blame for which will be labeled on Pakistan. Mark the incidents of Nehru University, Kashmir and Haryana. History teaches peace does not come from weakness. No amount of poaching or placating brings peace. Pakistan internal woes, mounting debt, lack of confidence of people in the existing political dispensation, invite weakness domestically. Domestically weak state is never in a position to put up a strong posture in foreign policy. Pakistan therefore has to put first house in order and that, key word is governance.
We must not allow escalation in tensions which could be exploited by India but not allow Indians pressures in the position of weakness. Thus transit permission to India to Afghanistan through Wagah will be a strategic blunder under any type of pressure or in the name of free trade or to bolster relations. Similarly reported agreement between India and Afghanistan to station five thousand Indian troops in the name of security for construction works is certainly going to escalate tensioned between not only India Pakistan and even Afghanistan. To sum up the whole strategic environment is extremely complex calling for a very calculated and balanced approach.
— The writer, retired Brigadier, is decorated veteran of wars and a defence analyst based in Lahore.
