By Oleg Barabanov, Valdai
The events of January 8, when attacks were launched on two American bases in Iraq, were the latest step in the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States. However, the Americans did not launch a quick retaliatory strike, and this gives hope that the situation will not get out of control.
Nevertheless, in the next couple of days it is worth watching how the Americans behave in Iraq. There are two options: either they will sharply activate the evacuation of their bases, or vice versa – they will begin to strengthen them. In the latter case, the chances of an escalation of the conflict with a harsh American response will increase, writes Oleg Barabanov, programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
The attacks on US bases in Iraq in response to the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds special force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were Iran’s most calculated reaction: it’s close, it’s within the reach of Iranian missiles.
Aside from those in Iraq, the closest American bases to Iran are in Qatar and in Turkey. But Iran has particularly constructive relations with these two countries. Iran’s main adversary in the Islamic world is Saudi Arabia, with the United Arab Emirates supporting it, which are in a confrontation with Qatar. Between them, there is a serious proxy war, which we are now witnessing in Libya. Qatar is working closely with Iran. There was information, that after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the Qataris got in touch with the Iranians, probably in order to convince the Iranians not to strike back at the American base in Qatar. A number of Iranian statements said that if the Americans inflict a new blow on Iran, the allies will suffer, but, naturally, Qatar and Turkey weren’t named, whereas Israel and the Emirates were. There is an American air base in the Emirates near Abu Dhabi. Therefore, most likely, the next goal of Iran will not be Qatar, but the Emirates. But if this happens, it will blow up the region as a whole.
The crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 passenger plane in Tehran in this context could also turn the situation in an unpleasant direction. While there is conflicting data, messages have appeared in the social media that cast doubt on the official explanation of the crash, which is that there was a fire in the engine. The authors point to the holes in the wing and fuselage, which may be the result of damaging elements from an explosion. The version of the story which has gained traction is that the crash of the Ukrainian plane did not occur for an internal technical reason, but was the result of a mysterious rocket attack. And if this version of the story isn’t officially confirmed, it will only sustain the popularity of the theory. The crash could have huge psychological significance in possible further pressure on Iran, especially from the American side.
