Για πιθανή Κοινωνική εξέγερση εξαιτίας των αυστηρών μέτρων της κυβέρνησης κάνει λόγο το ινστιτούτο Stratfor , το οποίο έλέγχεται απο την CIA. Η νέα ανάλυση, αναφέρεται λαμβάνοντας αφορμή το πρωτοφανές χτύπημα μπροστά από την Βουλή, αλλά και την ολοένα και μεγαλύτερη κλιμάκωση τέτοιων ενεργειών στην Ελλάδα από τον Δεκέμβριο του 2008 από ομάδες αριστερών και αναρχικών. Με ένα τέτοιο χτύπημα, όπως χαρακτηριστικά αναφέρεται, ενός "συμβολικού στόχου, όπως το Ελληνικό Κοινοβούλιο, αυτές οι ομάδες εμφανίζονται να είναι ικανές να χτυπήσουν οπουδήποτε και οποτεδήποτε". Πέρα από μια σύντομη αναφορά αντίστοιχων χτυπημάτων του 2009, συντάκτες της ανάλυσης εκτιμούν ότι οι επιθέσεις αυτές μπορούν να αποδοθούν στην επισφαλή οικονομική και πολιτική κατάσταση της Ελλάδας σήμερα, καταλήγοντας ότι "το πρόβλημα της Αθήνας έγκειται στο γεγονός ότι το κοινωνικό άγχος είναι σε υψηλό επίπεδο εξατίας της οικονομικής κρίσης της χώρας, ενώ το πακέτο των νέων φόρων μαζί με τις περικοπές σε επίπεδο κοινωνικής πρόνοιας θα αυξήσουν αυτήν την ένταση". Και η ανάλυση καταλήγει, προοιωνίζοντας -αν και δυνητικά διατυπωμένο- ότι τα αυστηρά μέτρα είναι δυνατό να στρέψουν τους πολίτες στην βία, εκφράζοντας έτσι την αποδοκιμασία τους για τις κυβερνητικές πολιτικές και αναδεικνύοντας έτσι την ανικανότητα της κυβέρνησης. Κοντολογίς αναταρχές προβλέπουν οι ισντρούκτορες των Αμερικανών. Ίδωμεν. Διαβάστε την ανάλυση των Αμερικανών πρακτόρων.
On Jan. 9, at approximately 8 p.m. local time, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated outside the Greek parliament building, a popular tourist attraction, breaking windows but causing no deaths or injuries. Less than 20 minutes before the attack, an anonymous caller informed the Eleftherotypia newspaper that the device would be detonated, giving police time to clear the area.
The IED was placed under a garbage can near the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, which is directly in front of the parliament building and under constant guard and video surveillance. Police have collected fragments of the device (likely made of cooking gas canisters, which are easy to obtain and the most common components used in such attacks in Greece) and are reviewing the surveillance video. So far, police have confirmed that a timer was found at the site and that a group calling itself the "Fire Conspiracy Cells" has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Over the past year, such bombings have been occurring more frequently against increasingly significant targets. In 2008, most of the attacks were against car dealerships, bank branches and diplomatic vehicles and were timed to avoid injuring people. In 2009 we saw the tactics intensify as police officers were targeted and killed and the target set shifted to include more strategically important sites such as the Greek Stock Exchange and National Insurance Company (the latter attacks were still preceded by phoned-in warnings). These varying and evolving tactics demonstrate a full spectrum of violence that the leftist and anarchist groups are capable of carrying out.
Consistent with the escalating campaign, the bombing in front of the parliament building was the most brazen attack in recent years. The area targeted is a very popular tourist attraction largely because of the ceremonial changing of the guard that takes place in front of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. The device was planted just a few yards from a nearby guard post, which underscores the purely ceremonial role of the soldiers guarding the monument.
While the parliament was not convened at the time of the attack, events were going on inside, and Greek Interior Minister Prokopis Pavlopoulos was scheduled to speak to reporters outside the building, near the site of the explosion at the approximate time the IED went off. Clearly, planting and detonating an explosive device in such a symbolic public area demonstrates the ability of leftist and anarchist groups to carry out their operations without police detection. And in order to deal with the escalating threat, the Greek government faces some difficult political decisions that could incite even more violence.
The uptick in attacks in 2009 can be attributed to the precarious political and economic situation in Greece. Because of Greek banking exposure to emerging markets in Central Europe and the country's reliance on tourism and shipping, Greece was hit particularly hard by the global economic crisis. Greece is set to have the highest government deficit (12.2 percent of gross domestic product [GDP]) and government debt (124.9 percent of GDP) in the eurozone in 2010. This puts the Greek government's ability to repay and service its debts in question, thereby damaging its credit rating and forcing the newly elected government to plan for austerity measures.
The European Union is pressuring Greece to enact severe budget cuts, and EU officials visited the country Jan. 6-8 to assess whether Athens is serious about lowering its deficit. The government is seriously considering rolling back social programs by raising the retirement age and has requested advice from the International Monetary Fund on how to reform its spending. The problem for Athens is that social angst is already at a high level due to the economic crisis, and a package of new taxes and social welfare cuts will only increase the tension. In notoriously volatile Greece, austerity measures will likely provide more reasons for people to turn to violence in order to express their disapproval of government policies and highlight the government's inability to manage the country.