A full domestic and foreign policy agenda awaits in 2014.

By Alakbar Raufoglu for SES Türkiye

The high-level graft scandal with widening corruption allegations and conspiracy theories, which is shaking confidence in the ruling elite, will take center stage in Turkish politics in the year ahead, analysts predict. 

"2014 will be a very long year in Turkey," Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund, told SES Türkiye, referring to the country's entering an 18-month-long election cycle that will see local elections in March, presidential elections in August and parliamentary ones in mid-2015.

For many local analysts, like Unluhisarcikli, the next year's votes will be "key cornerstones shaping towards the post Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan era."

"There are domestic and foreign policy challenges that make the road ahead bumpy," he said.

Among the major domestic issues are the tension between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Hizmet movement of Fetullah Gulen, the corruption probe which many analysts believe is linked to the tension, the stalemate in the peace process with the terrorist organisation the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), and questions over rule of law and media freedom.

Meantime, on Wednesday (December 25th) Erdogan announced a major cabinet reshuffle, naming 10 new people, after resignation of his three ministers who face allegations of bribery and tender-rigging.

On Sunday, Erdogan criticised protesters and vowed that the scandal would not harm his government.

"They said 'Gezi' and smashed windows. Now they say 'corruption' and smash windows. These conspiracies will not succeed," he said. "Their concern is not corruption, law or justice. Their only concern is damaging this nation's power."

Analysts said Erdogan is entering election season on uncertain footing, faced with divisions within his party and dwindling support among key groups that had powered his previous electoral wins.

"If AKP manages to gain more than 45 percent of the votes and hold on to the Ankara and Istanbul mayorships, Erdogan will be able to reconsolidate his powerful position; otherwise, the elections will definitely have a weakening impact on the [prime minister's] popularity," Ahmet Tolga Turker, an assistant professor of international relations at Istanbul's Arel University, told SES Türkiye, adding that the upcoming elections will be "crucial."

Birgul Demirtas, an associate professor of international relations at Ankara-based TOBB University, agreed.

The result of the elections "would show to a great extent whether a decade-old AKP dominance of the Turkish political scene would continue or not," she told SES Türkiye, adding that the elections will also clarify how tension between police and prosecutors will evolve.

"As the AKP lost an important part of its liberal followers due to its securitised and conspiracy theories-oriented attitude toward the Gezi Park protest movement, in the latest crisis over private prep schools it seems that it has also lost support of the Gulen movement," she said.

The government has expressed interest in shutting down private prep courses, which analysts say provide recruits and money to the Gulen movement. Gulen sympathisers have criticised the idea.

As Turkey would probably be more inward-looking next year, "one would witness whether the current challenging processes would result in more centralisation or democratisation," Demirtas said.

Turker, for his part, said the weakness of democratic norms in the country will continue to be negligible issues among Turkish voters.

"After 90 years of republican history, Turkey seems far away from upgrading itself from a semi-democracy to the premier league of industrialised democracies," he said. "It would be foolish to expect the current rift between the [Gulen movement] and the AKP to lead to a meaningful change in domestic politics," he said.

The resulting instability from the graft scandal also coincides with a period when Turkey's foreign policy faces growing challenges in a deeply unstable region. According to analysts, there will be no change in the general trend of Turkish foreign policy next year.

Baris Adibelli, an analyst at Manisa-based Dumlupınar University who has authored several books on Turkish foreign policy, believes that in 2014 Syria "will remain on the agenda" in Turkey.

"The disappearance of the military intervention option in Syria issue in 2013, disappointed Ankara," he told SES Türkiye.

Cenap Cakmak, a professor of international law and politics at Osmangazi University in Eskisehir, added that the best Ankara can do in Syria is "to avoid security problems that could have serious implications for its national security and to spend efforts so that the opposition groups are convinced to take part in the direct talks" set to take place in Geneva.

For Turker, Syria will "look like Iraq in post-2003 period and oil and natural gas-rich Rojava [the Kurdish region in Syria] will be like northern Iraq during the same period."

The major difference, he told SES Türkiye, is that Ankara "will have to deal with Kurds (PYD and allies) and radical Islamist groups (Al- Qaida and militant Salafi groups) rather than Erbil and Baghdad."

"Due to interference of Turkey to internal affairs of post-Mursi Egypt in 2013, the relations between two countries became worse. In 2014 the situation will continue," said Adibelli.

"Turkey-Iran relations entered a new phase with the nuclear deal. Israel is still the so-called 'big enemy' for Turkey. In 2014 Israel will preserve that title," he added.

On the Kurdish issue, Cakmak said, it is good news to see that there have been no casualties in confrontations between PKK militants and Turkish security forces for a long time.

But it appears that the PKK has consolidated its power and becomes a more legitimate actor. The problem is, he said, that the PKK "has never promised laying down the arms, which should have been dictated as a precondition for the talks."

"Now the PKK is an armed political actor. This is not good news. So, as long as it keeps holding arms and as long as a publicly-announced roadmap is not agreed, no lasting solution to the Kurdish issue should be expected in 2014," he said.

Adibelli added that in 2014 debates on both the Kurdish and democratisation processes will continue.

What do you think will be the biggest developments in the year? Share your predictions in the comments area.