By Brinda Banerjee, ValueWalk
Given the spike in tensions in Syria of late, talk of World War 3 has become inevitable. Despite individual state leaders reaffirming their commitment to fighting the Islamic State in Syria, fissures in bilateral relationships are becoming more pronounced with each passing day.
The U.S.-led Western coalition against ISIS and the Russian-led axis in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad continue to face off on various issues, not the least of which is their approach to each other’s presence in the region. With other factors such as collective defence organizations like NATO and inter-state rivalries like the one brewing between Russia and Turkey adding to the mix, security experts worry that it is only a matter of time before a global war is triggered.
World War 3: From “Unthinkable” To Probable
Until very recently, the suggestion that World War 3 was possible, let alone probable, would have been met with skepticism and disbelief. And yet, recent developments are compelling enough to give one pause and force us to consider that the global security landscape is neither as stable nor as predictable as we would like to believe.
Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko shared that as recently as 2013, the very idea of territorial wars, annexations and geopolitical reshaping seemed preposterous, with systems such as liberal institutionalism and sovereignty in place. And yet, in the last two years the global security landscape has changed very drastically and with it, our understanding of global security. Commenting on the danger faced by Europe as a whole, President Poroshenko said, “Is an attack on Finland possible? Yes, and Finland knows that. Is an attack on the Baltic States possible? Yes.”
From the annexation of Crimea, the war in Ukraine, the rise of the Islamic State and the upheaval in the Middle East, the fate of the world suddenly appears to be hanging by a thread. Russia specialist Michael Kofman says of World War 3: “It is possible now”. He believes, “We have gone from a war in Europe being unthinkable to it now being on the cards.”
The Russia authority has cautioned the United States government and defence officials against underestimating the security threat posed by Russia. He is of the opinion that “Britain and the West can’t be lazy, as a country you can’t let your defence budget tumble and you can’t assume there won’t be a war in Europe.”
Defence officials on all sides have assured audiences that a global war and the use of nuclear force is not a given just as yet; most security experts believe that a total war can still be averted but with recent developments such as President Putin’s interest in upgrading the Russian military or NATO beefing up security in the region, one cannot deny that war is a much likelier possibility today than it was five years back. And talk of an imminent conflict is incomplete without an assessment of capabilities and combat-readiness.
Putin Instructs Military To Increase Nuclear Readiness
Talk about the possibility of World War 3 has once again picked up steam ever since it was revealed last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed his defence officials to improve the Russian military, with an emphasis on nuclear capability. At a Defense Ministry Board gathering last week, President Putin said, “Special attention must be paid to strengthening the combat potential of the strategic nuclear forces, implementing space defense programs. It is necessary, as outlined in our plans, to equip all components of the nuclear triad with new arms.”
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu apprised President Putin and the gathered officials about the Russian military’s progress at the meeting. The Russian minister announced that Russia’s forces are working to improve their combat effectiveness, preparedness and equipment readiness. “The air-based strategic nuclear forces were bolstered by ten new aircraft in 2015 – two Tu-160, three Tu-95MS and fie Tu-22M3,” Defence Minister Shoigu said, adding, “The capabilities of the strategic nuclear forces were greatly improved.”
“Two new missile cruisers, Alexander Nevsky and Vladimir Monomakh, now maintain the state of permanent readiness,” the defence minister announced. “The Russian Armed Forces received a total of 35 ballistic missiles, so the Russian nuclear triad is now outfitted with 55% of modern hardware.”
Moscow is currently working to optimize ammunition storage and maintenance. Defence Minister Shoigu told the gathered officials that Russia is working to “Radically change the conditions of storage of missiles and ammunition enter the army as part of the state defense order. During 2014-2015, 390 vaults built,” as part of a plan to complete construction of modernized storage spaces and state-of-the-art facilities in the coming year.
Experts Believe Russia’s Economy Isn’t Ready For World War 3
President Putin recently warned that Russia would use nuclear force against Islamic State militants in Syria, should the need for extreme measures arise. The Russian leader did express that he hopes that such action is not needed, but intimidated that if it is, Moscow is ready and willing. The Russian President’s statement has put other governments on high alert since any nuclear action in Syria inevitably stands to impact the entire region, all the local and international actors involved and by extension, the world as a whole. Support for the argument that World War 3 is around the corner has only grown in the wake of President Putin’s assertion, causing audiences to wonder whether the U.S. and Russia are indeed on a collision course, and if the West has reason to be worried by Moscow’s military posturing.
However, there are those that believe that Russia does not possess the military might needed to be able to take on the U.S.-led and NATO-backed West. Michael Kofman and Dr. Andrew Foxall, a Russian specialist in the United Kingdom, are of the opinion that Russia’s military is a work in progress and that it has been left severely crippled by a spate of financial troubles. The falling oil prices, sanctions imposed by the West and Europe and the global economic downturn have dealt a severe blow against Russia’s defence budget.
“This year marks the highest military budget since the Soviet Union – but they are not going to see this kind of budget again,” Mr. Kofman says. He is of the opinion that Russia’s “economy is in disastrous shape”. The economic sanctions have singlehandedly caused Russia’s Gross Domestic Product to fall by 1.5%.
Analysts Claim Russia Lacks A Modern Army
Russia experts also believe that the Russian military itself is not powerful enough to fight World War 3 against more advanced forces.
Referring to the Russian Su-24 plane that Turkey recently shot down, Dr. Foxall explains, “Those planes were produced in the 1970s and 1980s and they have not been produced more or less since. Russia has not made any improvements militarily – it could be described as ‘uneven’ at best”. Dr. Foxall is of the opinion that should a World War 3-type scenario come to pass, Russia will not fare well in going up against NATO’s forces. “Russia’s equipment is outdated, “ the specialist believes. “The majority of the forces still follow the Soviet Union model”.
Dr. Foxall points out that the Russian administration is aware of these shortcomings. “During the 1990s and 2000s Russian leaders have often spoken about the need to reform the military – but in the end took little action.”
Referencing the “disastrous conflict in Georgia,” Dr. Foxall explained, “Russia won that war with Georgia because of the sheer size of its forces – but it was not equipped for modern warfare.”
Pointing to the weaknesses in Russia’s present-day military structure, Mr. Kofman reveals that the Russian ground forces boast 300,000 troops but a mere one-third of that number is adequately equipped to guarantee combat performance against modern military powers.
Mr. Kofman is of the opinion that “Russia has lot challenges with expeditionary warfare. It is not geared for warfare far away from home,” and maintains that “Realistically they would not stand a chance against NATO.”
Despite these gaping problems in Russia’s military set-up, the experts warn against taking the threat lightly. Mr. Kofman advises, “When you are dealing with nuclear power you have to have contingency plans.”
