There’s growing anxiety within the party that they’ll blow a chance to retake the chamber because of the GOP’s financial edge.
By Burgess Everett, Seung Min Kim and Kevin Robillard
Democrats have expanded the Senate map this year, recruiting viable candidates in states no one expected them to compete in, such as Arizona and Missouri, and arguably positioning themselves to ride an anti-Trump wave to the Senate majority.
But there’s one big problem: Money.
Republicans are outspending Democrats in key races so far. There’s little indication that Democrats will close the gap as Election Day approaches, and signs the chasm will grow thanks to the longer roster of deep-pocketed outside groups on the right. That’s triggered growing anxiety within the minority party about relinquishing an opening to net the four or five seats they need to recapture the Senate.
Outside Republican groups have jumped to an early lead in spending on Senate races in key swing states like New Hampshire and Ohio. If Republicans come to see Donald Trump as a lost cause in the general election, conservative cash could flood congressional races, which is seen as the GOP’s last line of defense against a Clinton White House and a liberal Supreme Court. Already, some anti-abortion groups are focused on defending the majority rather than supporting Trump.
With a sprawling map of more than a dozen contested states, Democrats want to force Republicans to make hard choices about which vulnerable incumbents they spend to defend. Democratic insiders hope the GOP apparatus won’t be able to provide air cover for everyone and that even outside groups could be spread thin.
But that might be wishful thinking.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has steadily outraised the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but the NRSC has slightly more cash on hand. And in an interview, DSCC Chairman Jon Tester of Montana raised a red flag that “these damn super PACs” might be an even bigger factor this year than in recent election cycles.
“We’re poised to compete, but the issue is that we need campaign finance reform badly and there’s going to be a lot of money spent this cycle,” Tester said. “Resources, especially in a presidential year, are finite.”
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) put it more succinctly: “We’re always outspent. The question is, how much?”
Everyone involved says the top of the ticket — i.e., Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, both sides believe — will set the tone for the Senate election. The better Clinton does nationally, Democrats contend, the more seats she’ll put in play. And that, they say, could make Republicans commit cash to protect incumbents who’d otherwise be heavy favorites and perhaps ditch some of the vulnerable ones.
Not all Republicans are ready to concede that. They say Trump could continue to surprise and actually draw new Republican voters. Party strategists say while Trump could hurt them in states with significant Latino populations, he could boost the GOP in key Rust Belt states such as Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“The more significant issue is going to be the top of the ticket and what happens there, because [that] will have an impact down-ballot,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas). When asked whether Trump could help Republicans in those races, Cornyn responded: “I think he could.”
It’s no secret where Democrats are competing the hardest: Against incumbents in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and New Hampshire and in open seats in Florida and Nevada, the only one of the seven now held by a Democrat. Republicans must decide at some point how much money to spend to protect Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Mark Kirk of Illinois, while full air cover is more assured for Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, candidates who are running in tighter races.
The next tier gets more difficult for Democrats: Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina. But Democrats recently scored recruits in three of those states, and the candidacies of former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge, Georgia businessman Jim Barksdale and Lexington, Kentucky, Mayor Jim Gray could force the GOP to pay more attention to those states.
Finally, there’s Colorado, a seat held by the only truly vulnerable Democratic incumbent — Michael Bennet.
Altogether, that’s 16 states Democrats claim they’re competing in.
“If it’s a strong Democratic year, we have chances in other seats that people counted us out in,” said Schumer, the expected Democratic leader next year. “But even if it’s a 50/50 year, we have a very good chance in seven seats.”
“I’ll name them,” a confident Schumer said in an interview. After looking at his spokesman to see how far he should go, Schumer added: “No, I won’t.”
But tilting against that optimism on the left is the GOP’s cash edge. Republicans have already spent big in competitive races across the map.
In Ohio, the Koch brothers-linked super PAC Freedom Partners Action Fund went up with a $2 million buy last week attacking Ted Strickland for job losses in Ohio while he was governor. The Democratic leadership-blessed Senate Majority PAC quickly responded with an ad accusing Portman of sending jobs abroad, but the buy was for just $640,000.
In New Hampshire, Republican outside groups spent millions against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan before she even entered the race. GOP spending on the contest is now up to $8 million, while Senate Majority PAC has responded with about $1.3 million and the DSCC has chipped in $15,000 in digital ads.
And Republican outside groups have already provided air cover to Chuck Grassley of Iowa and ground resources to Roy Blunt of Missouri, two GOP incumbents on stronger footing to keep their seats.
Of the most competitive Senate races this year, only the Illinois contest has seen more spending for Democrats. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has spent about $550,000 for GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, while VoteVets has spent about $620,000 for Rep. Tammy Duckworth.
Meanwhile, Gray and Barksdale are both wealthy enough to self-fund, and insiders in both parties privately say it would take a sea change in the political environment for those seats to truly be in play.
“That’s what you do in March,” NRSC Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said, referring to Barksdale in Georgia. “You go find somebody that doesn’t have to raise the money.”
Still, the expanded map means Sens. Johnny Isakson of Georgia and Rand Paul of Kentucky will likely have to stand on their own back home. Sources say national Republicans are unlikely to spend money to prop them up, with one national strategist quipping: “If we’re putting money in Georgia and Kentucky, we’re fu—d. We’re not sending money there.”
Asked about Barksdale’s challenge, Isakson brushed it off and noted that there are multiple candidates vying in the Democratic primary.
“I’m going to have a race in the fall against somebody,” Isakson said. “Until I know who that is, I’m not going to worry about it.”
How serious Democrats are about Iowa remains unclear. The DSCC promptly sounded supportive of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge over state Sen. Rob Hogg, mostly because Democrats believe Grassley is now more vulnerable due to his role leading the GOP’s Supreme Court blockade.
Judge conceded in an interview that money will be a challenge but asserted she’ll have enough to compete. She has run statewide four times, and the focus on Grassley could make her a draw for small-dollar donors upset over the Supreme Court situation.
“We’ll be funded to go the distance,” she said. “I’m not naive enough to think I’m going to raise more money than Chuck Grassley.”
Other Democratic recruits with long political histories have a mixed record on fundraising. Former Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold has brought in almost $7 million since starting his bid last spring. But Strickland, in Ohio, has just one-sixth of Portman’s cash on hand.
And despite boasting about recruits, it’s debatable whether Democrats will get their chosen candidates in Pennsylvania and Florida, both top-tier states. They’re backing Katie McGinty over former Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania, and Rep. Patrick Murphy over Rep. Alan Grayson in Florida, but it’s not clear whether the establishment candidates will prevail in a year favoring outsiders.
Republicans had largely avoided divisive primary challenges until failed 2010 candidate Sharron Angle entered the GOP primary against Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada. There are still several other crowded primaries.
Democrats did have one big misfire in North Carolina. Several prominent Democrats — from Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx to former Sen. Kay Hagan — took a pass on trying to unseat Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), despite his relatively low profile in the state.
That has left Democrats with state Rep. Deborah Ross, a candidate Burr said he is “delighted” to face.
Democrats, he said, have “a lot of races they have to fight before mine.”
